Windows 8: a bold and risky venture

Sep 15, 2011 10:18 am by | 35 comments

Arriving in Anaheim earlier this week, we simply weren’t quite prepared for what we heard in our day long “reviewer’s workshop” on Monday, in the keynotes, and in getting someh hands on time with Windows 8 running on a touch enabled tablet.  The changes are deep and profound, changing Windows and Microsoft in fundamental ways.  These changes, however, are based on a few key assumptions that make the move to Windows 8 and Metro extremely risky.  Microsoft will be walking a high wire in the coming months, and failure in any one of these assumptions could mean massive failures instead of massive success for the future of the company.  Either are possible, and what’s even more risky is that much of the success of Windows 8 is not in Microsoft’s control.

The first assumption is that Windows users will embrace touch.  In using the developer tablet Microsoft provided to us to review, we found touch and the Metro interface to be a compelling, fun, and addictive experience.  You will want to touch the screen after using a touch device for a while: any screen.  Your old laptop or desktops non-touch display will seem, well, broken.

But Windows 8 in a non touch environment isn’t nearly as compelling.  Frankly, the use of the start screen instead of the start menu as the launching pad for apps is jarring and somewhat annoying, no matter what Steven Sinofsky would like you to believe.  Windows 8 on a non touch device simply isn’t Windows 8, and selling new licenses for old hardware isn’t going to bring about the changes required to make Windows 8 a success.

The next assumption, and it’s the same assumption that Apple, Google, and even Amazon are making: that you’ll buy into the Windows/Metro ecosystem.  The perfect scenario for Microsoft sees consumers using a Windows Phone, a Windows 8 ARM tablet, and a Windows 8 touch enabled laptop or desktop, and oh yeah an Xbox, which in reality is “touch enabled” via Kinect.

The third, and by far the most critical assumption, the basis for the success or failure of Windows 8 and “Microsoft re-imagined”, is that an “iPad killer” ARM based Windows 8 tablet comes to market, and soon.  John Gruber nails the importance of Windows 8 and ARM, noting that unlike Intel based tablets, for example the developer machine Microsoft handed out to Build attendees, indications are that an ARM based Windows 8 tablet will be Metro only.  Getting Metro, and more importantly touch, in the hands of lots of users in the form of a low cost, low power Metro themed ARM tablet is critical to a more widespread adoption of touch enabled devices running on Windows.

The developer story is as good or better than it’s been in the history of Microsoft, a company that has led the way in making developers successful.  Microsoft has, in Windows 8, created an operating system that moves users into the next generation of computing, without cutting off the head of the most successful technology ecosystem in the world.  But the success or failure of Windows 8 doesn’t hinge on developers and install base.

Microsoft must get users to embrace touch, embrace the Microsoft ecosystem including phones, tablets, and Windows 8 desktops and laptops, and embrace Metro.  To do that, it must get touch in the hands of lots of users early, and it has set itself up to accomplish that by bringing ARM into the mix.  If Microsoft’s partners can bring a generation of ARM devices to market that succeed, it will be well on the way to making the Metro dream a reality.

If on the other hand these ARM devices meet the same fate as Vista, with early failures marking them with a red X in consumers minds, users stick to Windows 7, Windows Phone continues to post disappointing sales, and Apple and Amazon roll on with popular alternative versions of what Metro brings to the table, Microsoft could just as easily find itself in serious serious trouble.

Steve Ballmer said earlier this year that Windows 8 was the most risky thing Microsoft has ever done, and indeed it is.  The potential is there for great success: Microsoft has indeed “reimagined Windows”.  It needs users and hardware partners to reimagine the market.  Microsoft has effectively bet the company on Windows 8 and Metro.  Will they win or lose?

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  • http://twitter.com/Andrew_ww Andrew W

    Microsoft is alienating most of their users. Touch is useful but I spend enough time cleaning of my screen without touching it just so movies and tv will look perfectly clear.

  • Hal9000

    i think (hope?) they will sort things out for the beta with improvements for non-touch devices

  • http://doctorwhofan98.wordpress.com/ doctorwhofan98

    I’m not about to get a touch screen for my PC… it looks like Windows 8 won’t be the best thing for it. That’s not to say I won’t get it, though. :-)

  • http://twitter.com/bnlf Bruno Nunes

    i think the new interface is near perfect for touch devices, specially tablets but for desktop i would say its just a waste of good space and time. I have a 24” screen dont wanna use 1 app on the entire screen.

    • Anonymous

      that’s why there is window snap on both metro and traditional UI.

  • john

    “But the success or failure of Windows 8 doesn’t hinge on hinges on more than developers and install base.”

    Yes totally….. wait what?

    • http://www.LiveSide.net Kip Kniskern – LiveSide.net

      oops fixed sry!

  • alterSchw3de

    I don’t see the real risk. Microsoft has enough time, to allow users to use the standard startmenu in Windows 8 desktop mode, so it’s up to them to allow users enabling a legacy mode to get the new stuff but without lowering the usability for real work loads

  • Asmodai

    Personally I’m not a big fan of touch.  It’s handy, especially on mobile devices to do quick and relatively simple things but as the complexity of the task goes up the appeal of touch goes down.  I require my smartphone to have a physical keyboard, I would prefer a tablet/slate computer include a stylus (though I have yet to buy a tablet/slate) and I have ZERO desire to touch my screen on a desktop or laptop.  I can’t imagine working in Visual Studio or Office on a touch based device and as far as gaming I think Kinect and touch only devices such as the iPhone limit the input options to an unacceptable level for anything but ‘casual’ gaming.  Perhaps I’m just a Luddite though.

    • Anonymous

      but that’s the beauty of it. You can use any one of those inputs to do your work. If touch is not your thing…don’t get it. If you want the best of both worlds grab a tablet (like the dev hardware) with a dock. Where you can bounce between touch when you need it (on the go) and keyboard when you want to plow through some serious work. No other OS out there has these capabilities. Its pretty exciting.

      • Asmodai

        You can use any one of them but the article (specifically the third paragraph starting with “But Windows 8 in a non touch environment isn’t nearly as compelling…”) makes it sound like the experience isn’t so grand using anything other than touch, in fact it makes it sound like it’s a step backwards in non-touch usability.  I seriously doubt I will update or recommend any friends/family purchase/upgrade any desktop/laptop to Windows 8.  That said I do prefer the school of thought that says a tablet is a small PC over the tablet being a big phone so it’s entirely possible that a Windows 8 tablet purchase could be in my future.  That’s really what Windows 8 is to me, a tablet specific version of Windows.

        • Anonymous

          Lets not lose sight…. Its a developer preview (still a lot of work to be done) and there is a quite a bit of personal preference in how you work. I personally don’t really ever use the start menu. After win7 I have no icons on my desktop and everything I need is pinned to the taskbar. I find that the most efficient for my use. There is going to be an initial shock and a bit of “who moved my cheese” with win 8 no doubt….but what I got from the dev preview is MS is putting a lot of thought into this. They are really focusing on a cohesive experience across all their product lines (finally!!). At this point I would recommend it to my family friends…based on what i’ve seen/heard… I think MS is on the right track and by release it should be pretty solid. But we’ll see…we all know things can change.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t get it. The point and click windows 7 like interface is still there, 1 button away. Who is being alienating? There’s a choice of how you want to use the system now, whether it be touch, stylus, mouse, keyboard etc

    • http://twitter.com/Andrew_ww Andrew W

      Everyone who doesn’t use a touch device (most people) is being alienated. They will be selling an OS that is barely changed unless you use touch. Touch is useless for desktops or anything you don’t want to get covered in finger prints.

      • Anonymous

        The point and click interface is still there, so how are we being alienated? People complain about the drastic UI changes, yet you want to have the same UI. They have made changes to the system, but in manners which won’t be seen

        • Anonymous

          The only problem is in the user experience (UX) Even in the “classic” desktop mode, there is no start menu.  It returns you to the Metro Start Screen.  This means even in “classic” mode, to have more than one app running you have to go back & forth between the two UIs.

          That experience would be jarring at best.

          I’m not looking forward to hiding the “classic” desktop every time I need to open a new app legacy app.

          • Anonymous

            I’m positive that there would be a solution for that. Hardly a deal breaker.
            Also if you really want the point click type interface why would u want to use an app optimized for the touch metro interface? Why would u want to be switching between the two interfaces? You can’t have your cake and eat it too. IF you’re on tablet use metro, if you’re on mouse and keyboard use point and click. Keep in mind though, keyboard and mouse works SURPRISINGLY well in metro too!!

          • Anonymous

            I hoping for a solution too. I feel MS will come up with a way to access legacy apps in the classic desktop.

            I’m a designer/coder so my typical usage scenario (replacing my laptop with a Windows 8 device) would be using mostly legacy apps when using it as a laptop.

            The procedure would go something like this. From Metro, open Photoshop. Return to Metro – open Dreamweaver. Return to Metro. Open Visual Studio. Return to metro…

            Now I’m in and out of these apps constantly, and though Metro does work well with keyboard/mouse for input. The truth is, it would be a horrible user experience.

            Now, I love Metro. I love Windows 7. And I love the idea of them both living in the same OS. My point is only that Microsoft MUST make the transition between the two interfaces seamless. Especially for people that will be using a lot of legacy apps in a single computing session.

          • Anonymous

            Understood, but don’t you think that it’s up to the developers of Photoshop and dreamweaver to releease metro versions of their software? or you may get metro alternatives from other 3rd party devs. There’s so much Microsoft can do I think to make that transition seamless. What do you propose?
            Personally as much as Microsoft wants to get full blown windows on a tablet, there has to be some PCish stuff that will suffer. Your example is one of them. You might be better off getting a laptop. PCs cannot be replaced, at least not now. Power use seems to always be point and click…it’s going to be hard…but much better than the alternatives out there right now.

          • Anonymous

            No, I don not think it’s up to the Developers to release Metro versions of their software at this time. Maybe in the future, but not yet.  I also don’t even know if something like the Adobe CSx Suite can even be done for Metro. I certainly know you’re not going to be able to di it in HTML5 and JS. Some things will still need to be coded for Win 32.

            What do I propose? Somwthing like the image I’ve attached. When in classic desktop, the Windows button (previously reffered to as the start button) should act exactly as it does in Windows 7. With the addition of a Start area that returns you to Metro.

            It would keep the classic experience consistant with what users expect, not have a uncomfortable transition when opening new legacy apps and let users stay in calssic mode until they decide to you back to Metro.

            This would be as close to perfect as a “convertible” device could be. Tablet mode would be Metro all the way & “Work” mode could be classic desktop as much as needed and expected.

            I also think if a user decides to open a Metro app from this new classic “start menu” the Metro app should be opened in it’s “Snapped” mode and the user can then decide to bring it full screen.

          • Anonymous

            That’s a pretty good idea actually. I hope it gets implemented within the year.

      • http://twitter.com/efjay01 Ef Jay

        We wont know exactly how the desktop experience will change till after it is released. Saying they will be selling an unchanged OS is premature.

  • Andrew

    I find it interesting that people are assuming that it is either traditional or touch, but when I was trying out the developer preview I found myself happily sitting at my desk with a mouse and keyboard but wanting to also use touch on the monitor to move things around, quick start apps, etc. honestly, tablets are great, the ability to use non-tablet stuff with keyboard and mouse is essential, but combine the two together and that is going to be awesome.

  • Anonymous

    This is not good at all. Microsoft is trying to pressure people into buying a whole new desktop, laptop, phone and tablet to enjoy Windows 8. This is coming at a bad time when people are facing financial hardships.  It would have been better to just come out with Windows 8 upgrade for non touch desktop and laptop computers only….which is what majority of people have these days. Did you all learn anything from Windows 7?  People are willing to go for upgrades on computer systems, but buying a whole new entire system just to enjoy the goodies of Windows 8 touch in this economy is a whole different story.  I wish Microsoft would quit being a follower and learn to become a creator and leader. Have you all learned yet that just because it works for Apple doesn’t mean that it will work for you all too? Nothing is wrong with moving forward, but make sure your customers can move forward with you. Me personally, I can deal with touch on a phone and a tablet.  But having touch on a desktop computer and laptop is a NO! on my side. If you put touch on a laptop, then what is the purpose of the tablet? Also for people who have a desktop, laptop, smartphone and tablet..isn’t that 3 internet bills?

    • john

      What are you talking about? They don’t have to buy all those things to enjoy Windows 8. I don’t need a Windows Phone 7 to enjoy my Windows 8 OS. I don’t even understand where your getting that idea from.

      • Anonymous

        Agreed. None of those extra devices are necessary. Neither is touch, but the experience of those other devices you have would be greatly enhanced by staying in the Windows ecosystem.

  • ARB

    I do like touch, but i dont have touch laptop or desktop.. so no use for windows 8 on them, however if i have tablet it would be nice.

    If there is an option to TURN ON N OFF METRO START MENU it would be great.

    • ABC

      Yes, there is.

      • http://www.LiveSide.net Kip Kniskern – LiveSide.net

        Apparently you have the ability to turn the Metro interface completely off, which then does bring back the old start menu.  But by doing that you aren’t able to access the Metro interface at all.  There doesn’t seem to currently be a way to revert the start button back and still have access to Metro.

        • Asmodai

          So if one were to revert to the start button, on say a desktop system with no touch screen, what would that leave you that justifies upgrading from Windows 7?  In other words are there any significant updates to Windows 8 over Windows 7 once Metro is disabled? (excluding any new features that MS will release for Windows 7 as well)

          • http://www.LiveSide.net Kip Kniskern – LiveSide.net

            There are some (faster boot times, etc), but nothing in the way of a “killer app” that would make you need to upgrade from Win7.  Currently you either have the start screen, or you don’t have Metro (and more importantly, Metro apps).  It will be interesting to see if MSFT sticks to this position, or if they insist that users change the way they’ve worked since the early days of Windows.

          • Anonymous

            Kip, see my response to hotnikkelz above to see a simple solution to this problem.  I really hope MS is reading blogs like this.

  • http://twitter.com/martinspt Martin Scott

    To dismiss the UI to be ‘touch only’ or not as elegant with non-touch input methods is either a failing of understanding or intentional ignorance.

    A mouse is a device to ‘click a point’ on the screen.  Because touch was expensive, so we used the Mouse instead.

    The base concept of a mouse is to use a pointer to ‘reach into the screen and touch things’.

    To present that the UI is ‘touch friendly’ but unfriendly to a mouse is an intellectual disconnect of what the original purpose of a mouse was design and is used to accomplish – touching objects on the screen.

    Other UI interactions are also being dismissed because of lack of support and basic implementation in the developer preview.  Keyboards can fully navigate the UI, a Remote control (like from Media Center) can fully navigate the UI, as well as touch, camera input, and even kinect like interaction.

    To dismiss the desktop as ‘non-touch’ and a bad place for Metro UI, is another intellectual disconnect.  Touch screen prices are dropping, and there are times even when the most ‘geeky’ user would use a touch screen even if they spend most of their time in a CLI and barely touch a mouse.

    As for the ‘options’ of the Start Menu and the Metro UI.  Microsoft has REPEATEDLY stated that Metro can be fully turned off, including the ‘start screen’.   In the developer Preview it is not a simple ‘option’ to force developers to become familiar with the Metro UI, and if they want, there are hacks to turn back on the Win7 type interfade options and turn off the Metro Start Screen.

    (*Reference Microsoft talking about Windows 8 in a corporate environment, where the default can be set to look like Windows 7, so that users moving between systems won’t be ‘forced’ into the Windows 8 Metro Experience. This applies to ALL users, not just the corporate customers.)

    The ‘closed’ minded response is just amazing.  Microsoft is giving users Windows 7 with a turbo charger, and they are also including a dual UI experience that is optional.  If you don’t want to use Metro, don’t, it is that simple.  Nothing is being forced on you, and you get all the other great features of Windows 8, that people keep overlooking.

    If Microsoft can seamlessly, and without consuming additional resources provide you with two UI options, and a duality mode that combines the two UI options, why are you complaining except out of ignorance.

    As for Metro, there is a good case of ‘why’ it works well on a desktop. Think about an older relative or novice user, that does Internet, Email, checks the weather, reads some news, and uses Facebook.  Metro is PERFECT for them, as it displays LIVE information about all the things that are important to them, and they can glance at the screen and easily flip through into them faster than they launch and arrange Windows on the desktop.  (These users already run everything Maximized, and don’t care about anything but THEIR stuff, and this is great for them.)

    There is also a good case for Metro for ‘advanced’ users, as we are slammed with tons of information, and just keeping up with our basic Inbox, Twitter, Facebook, RSS Feeds, Daily News is enough to demand a chunk of our time, that we could be doing other things.   Think of the Metro Start UI as a place to see things that are important to you ‘updated’ in LIVE tiles, with the important information you work with available at a glance on the screen.  (This is like the unified information model, and even Win95′s unified Inbox concept that was not used by 3rd parties sadly, where we should of had one spot to see every piece of communication and news that was a flag or important to us instantly.)  Metro gives you this.

    The developer Preview doesn’t have all the Live Tile functionality and Apps that make it sing, it is rather plain and just a App Launcher with a few tricks demonstrated for Developers.

    The author of the article needs to let ‘go’ of the past a bit, and truly dig into Metro with new eyes, and the potential it has for even the most advanced users out there.

    As for people talking about Photoshop and other applications in Metro.  There are some Apps that are good in Metro, and some that are NOT.  However, why not consider a world where ‘both’ exist, and using the Photoshop example:

    On the classic desktop, you have Photoshop as you know it today.  On Metro, you have a scaled down version of Photoshop that does basic image processing, and things the average home user would do, in a tight and simple UI that ‘connects’ with ‘charms’ to other applications in Metro.

    This would allow grandma to auto-correct a photo, smooth out some wrinkles, and crop it, and email it, without having to learn how to use Photoshop, all because it is following the ‘easier’ to understand Metro UI interface constructs, and still accessing the Photoshop engine.  An advanced user could do the same, and if they needed more features that the Metro version exposed, launch into the desktop version of Photoshop and make the changes and flip back to Metro to finish the simple features, and throw it on Facebook or email it.

    This will create a new market for Photoshop for home users that would never consider it, and offer functionality that they could never master in traditional Photoshop because of the complexity.  (Look at the painting Apps on WP7, iOS, Android – they are simple and effective, and even novice users are cropping photos, tinting, smudging, etc.)

    This concept can be extended to ALL traditional desktop applications, even a complex CAD program could have a Metro Tile that is a Live model viewer, that opens to let the user spin the model, and play with it.

    Think about any software you have developed or really like, imagine a Live Tile into that application, and a Metro App interface that provides basic features to users that would not be able to use the full application because of its complexity and depth it offers.

    Heck even think games, Imagine a MMO that you play as a Live Tile that displays information on your game, or even a  Live View into the game, that you can see other players visiting your ‘house’ or whatever you do in the MMO.  Imagine popping open a Metro UI to the game, instantly and doing basic things in the game, and still have the option to open the full game and use traditional interface concepts you like.  (Now imagine that when you are on your XBox or carrying your WP7 phone, you also get the Live View of your MMO game, and can open the same Metro App to do simple things (or everything depending on how much the developer implements).

    There is SO MUCH to Metro beyond ‘touch’ and being easy to use, and why people are not looking to how this will change everything they do, and instead doing the bah-hum-bug crap is amazing.

    (Yes I am a computer scientist with a background in visual design and user interface design and usability, and NO I do not work for Microsoft.)

    • Guest

      Too bad, they could use people like you.

    • Anonymous

      Martin,
      YES! You totally get it. I’ve been telling people for days (and taking quite a bit of heat for it) in the Windows 8 forums) that Metro is so much more than the dozen or so apps that some interns coded for a tech preview, or a shiny “toy” layer to “the Real Windows”.

      The possibilities with a platform that can transform itself for the device/situation for which it’s being used are endless. My only point of contention is the the way they are handling the transition between the two different experiences the OS offers.

      As a UI/UX designer myself, the “feel” & consistency(s) of the experience is my only concern. I mean, hey its Windows. I know the code will do what’s its supposed to.

      I also find it refreshing you mentioned Kinect integration. With it added to the Metro UI, I feel, Microsoft is very close to implementing the first true NUI. I (as do a lot of others) believe NUI is more a product of context than technology. What’s appropriate and natural in one context is not in another.

      With Windows 8 + a Kinect-type peripheral, and all the types of input that combination could accept, they are closer than anyone thinks to pulling it off.

      I imagine a day in the very near future where I walk in to my home office, ask the computer to list my new emails, while leaning back and gesture controlling a “newspaper” app while leaning back and sipping my coffee. Then telling the PC to read the contents of an email as I naturally lean in and take control via keyboard & mouse to interact with it (ie. reply, download pictures, etc.)

      Of course I can then pull it form its dock and interact with it through touch for media consumption or pen for taking notes in meetings.

      All the while transitioning between these modes of interactivity without a thought as to which to pick.  It will all happen naturally.

      This is my vision of what Windows 8 can be the beginning of. One device, many purposes. From traditional desktop to PMP and everything in between.

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